Define the decision
Clarify objectives, stakeholders and success criteria.
03 / STRATEGIC ENGINEERINGIMPERIAL’S STRATEGIC ENGINEERING LABORATORY ↗
Beyond the
process flowsheet.
A process can work technically and still be the wrong investment. Demand, operating costs and deployment timing can change the answer.
My work with the Strategic Engineering Laboratory at Imperial connects resource engineering to decisions under uncertainty. In the ESA-supported space resources value-chain programme, I work on modelling the business case for lunar resource systems: connecting technical choices with costs, markets and deployment strategies.
TRY A SIMPLE DECISIONBuild everything now.
Build everything now.
Or keep the option to expand.
A fixed plant commits its full capacity upfront. A staged plant starts smaller and expands if demand justifies it.
NET RETURN / ARBITRARY UNITS · VERTICAL LINE = ZERO
FIXED CAPACITY
STAGED CAPACITY
Illustrative assumptions & calculation
Demand d ranges from 0 to 100. Fixed: capacity 100, upfront cost 65, return = d − 65. Staged: initial capacity 40 at cost 30; optional expansion adds capacity 60 at cost 45. Staged return = max(min(d,40) − 30, d − 75): expansion is chosen only above demand 85. All values are arbitrary units. The chart shows net return, including negative values. No probabilities, discounting or time-to-expand are modelled.
A deliberately simple teaching example, not an ESA model, forecast, optimisation or investment recommendation. Adaptability can limit downside, but it has a cost.
The strategic engineering method
Read the lab’s full method ↗Represent uncertainty
Identify plausible ranges and the drivers that matter.
Connect the system
Link the technology, operations and economics.
Keep choices open
Consider what to commit, stage or defer.
Compare futures
Explore alternatives across multiple scenarios.
Value adaptability
Assess whether flexibility earns its extra cost.
Expose trade-offs
Make risk and reward explicit for decision-makers.
A concise adaptation of the SEL method. Explore the ESA value-chain programme ↗